- El Nino could cause 3.73 lakh additional heat deaths globally.
- Nigeria and India projected to face highest mortality burden.
- March 2027 expected to see the highest monthly death toll.
A powerful El Nino event could lead to around 3.73 lakh additional heat-related deaths worldwide between October 2026 and March 2027, according to the latest projections from the Climate Impact Lab. The El Nino Heat Mortality Tracker estimates that Nigeria will face the highest number of additional heat-related deaths over the next six months, at around 56,000.
India follows closely with approximately 55,000 projected deaths, while Indonesia and Brazil are also expected to face substantial impacts. These figures are model-based estimates compared with historical mortality levels, not confirmed deaths or a certainty that the projected toll will occur.
Which Countries Could Record The Most Heat-Related Deaths?
According to the Climate Impact Lab's forecast for October 2026 to March 2027, the projected additional heat-related deaths in selected countries are:
- Nigeria: 56,000
- India: 55,000
- Indonesia: 29,000
- Brazil: 19,000
- Sudan: 14,700
The projections show that countries across Africa, Asia and South America could face a substantial burden from extreme heat. Nigeria and India are expected to record the highest national totals, with India's projected deaths concentrated largely in March.
India Among Countries Facing Highest Projected Toll
India could record approximately 55,000 additional heat-related deaths between October and March, according to the tracker. Most of the projected deaths are expected in March, as temperatures begin rising ahead of the summer season.
Recommended For You
El Nino can influence India's temperature and rainfall patterns and is associated with an increased risk of weaker monsoon rainfall. However, its effects vary across regions and seasons, and the phenomenon does not mean that every part of India will experience the same conditions.
The projections underline the importance of heat-warning systems, access to drinking water, cooling facilities and healthcare preparedness, particularly for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations.
March Could See The Highest Monthly Death Toll
The tracker projects the following additional heat-related deaths worldwide:
- October: 38,300
- November: 49,600
- December: 34,500
- January: 48,800
- February: 64,200
- March: 1,37,500
ALSO READ: El Nino's Surprising Effect Beyond Weather, It Makes Earth's Days Longer; Here's How
March has the highest projected monthly toll, with around 1.38 lakh additional deaths worldwide. The estimates may change as the Climate Impact Lab incorporates new temperature observations and forecasts.
The updated forecast is higher than an earlier estimate because March has been added to the projection period and observed temperatures for August and September were warmer than anticipated. Researchers say the tracker is intended to help governments identify high-risk regions and direct preventive measures where they could save the most lives.
You May Also Like To Watch: