Sugar Prices To Come Down Soon: How Much Stock Does India Have? Full Report

Jagran Bureau, New Delhi: The sugar prices in the retail markets are at an all-time high. The biggest reason for the surge is hoarders and speculative purchases by traders. Considering the impact of weather, disease, and rain on the sugarcane crop, traders feared a potential shortage in the market and accordingly started hoarding for a month or two.

This led to a shortage of sugar in the market, despite ample sugar reserves in the country, causing the prices to rise sharply. However, with government action and additional supply arrangements, prices are likely to show signs of moderation.

Union Minister for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Pralhad Joshi and the apex body of the sugar industry, Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), have claimed that the impact of the government's initiative is visible in the market.

What do numbers say?

Joshi stated that the country has sufficient sugar. 3.06 crore tons of sugar is available against the annual domestic requirement of about 2.8 crore tons. The government will release adequate stocks into the market and action will be taken against hoarders and those who artificially inflate prices.

According to ISMA President Neeraj Shirgaonkar, early in the crushing season, pressure was visible on the initial production estimates due to availability of sugarcane, bad weather, red rot disease and changes in recovery rates.

Additionally, festive demand and reports of a rise in global markets prompted traders to increase their buying in advance, further fueling speculation in the market.

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Initially, the picture was encouraging. The Agriculture Ministry had estimated a record sugarcane production of over 50 crore tonnes in the last week of May, which was about 4.54 crore tonnes more than the previous year's 45.46 crore tonnes.

Despite this, sugar production estimates in sugarcane-producing states have fallen from an initial estimate of 3.43 crore tonnes to about 3.06 crore tonnes, a drop of about 11 per cent from the initial estimate.

This decline was largely due to declining sugarcane quality and recovery rates. Two years ago, the national average recovery was around 10.10 per cent, while this time it was 9.56 per cent.

Although this was almost equal to 2024-25, red rot, top borer, and waterlogging from excessive rainfall affected the quality of sugarcane in many areas. Therefore, estimating sugar production based solely on sugarcane weight proved risky.

A big lesson for the government machinery

This is a major lesson for the government machinery. Given the record sugarcane production forecast, continuous monitoring of field conditions, disease, waterlogging, sugarcane quality, and state-wise recovery was essential throughout the season.

If the agriculture, sugarcane, and food departments had regularly reviewed data and revised production estimates in accordance with changing circumstances, potential shortages could have been identified earlier. This would have allowed timely measures such as stock management and additional supply to be taken.

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Now what?

ISMA argues that by starting the crushing season 10-15 days earlier, 10-12 lakh tonnes of sugar can come into the market in October, whereas the demand during this period is estimated to be 24-25 lakh tonnes.

This supply, combined with existing stocks and imports, could ease market pressure. Opening stocks of approximately 35 lakh tons are expected at the end of September. This means the country will enter the next sugar year with adequate reserves.