- Retail sugar prices are expected to drop significantly in 7-10 days..
- Ex-mill sugar rates have already declined below Rs 5,000
- Consumer relief delayed by wholesale traders' high-cost inventory.
Top industry bodies said that sugar prices may fall significantly in the retail market in the next 7-10 days, giving relief to end consumers in the festive season. Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) and the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) held a joint press conference in Delhi on September 2 to share updates on the current sugar supply situation and discuss future retail pricing expectations.
They informed that ex-mill prices of sugar declined below Rs 5,000 per 100 kilograms, and the impact of this will be seen in retail prices very soon.
Sugar Prices: Ex-Mill Vs Retail Rates
Industry bodies noted that ex-mill sugar prices have pulled back from recent high points, and the current benchmark ex-mill rates include Maharashtra S-grade at Rs 4,460–Rs 4,500 per quintal, while Gujarat M-grade is at Rs 4,740. The sugar ex-Mill rate in Karnataka is at Rs 4,960 per quintal.
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NFCSF President Harshvardhan Patil confirmed that ex-mill prices across the country have successfully dropped below Rs 5,000 per quintal. However, he pointed out that these reductions have not yet reached end consumers, as retail prices in several regions remain elevated at around Rs 63 per kilogram.
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When Retail Sugar Price Will Come Down
Industry standards suggest that the standard markup between ex-mill and retail prices typically sits between Rs 5 and Rs 8 per kilogram. Based on these margins, retail rates should reasonably settle in the Rs 50–Rs 52 per kilogram range. ISMA Managing Director Deepak Ballani said that lower mill rates will gradually pass through the supply chain, projecting visible relief in retail markets within the next 7 to 10 days.
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Reasons Behind the Delay in Consumer Relief
- The disconnect between falling mill rates and persistent retail prices stems largely from inventory dynamics.
- Wholesale traders who purchased stock during peak price periods are reluctant to take losses by selling at lower open-market rates.
- Consequently, retail prices will likely shift downward only after higher-cost inventories are depleted. ISMA expects more noticeable price adjustments in consumer markets over the coming weeks.