- By Priyanka Koul
- Thu, 25 Jun 2026 05:15 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
- USGS Red Alert projected a potential death toll above 100,000 based on early seismic data.
- Two powerful quakes struck just 39 seconds apart, increasing the risk of building collapses.
- Early estimates are worst-case projections and are revised as official information emerges.
Venezuela Earthquake: After back-to-back powerful earthquakes struck off the coast of Venezuela on Wednesday evening, the death toll has risen to at least 164, while 971 others have been confirmed injured, acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez confirmed on Thursday. However, initial automated estimates suggested the death toll could exceed 100,000. Let's find out.
The twin earthquakes, measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude, shook a vast region, prompting evacuations in cities as far away as Brazil's Amazon region, nearly 1,700 kilometers from the epicenter. What shocks the most is that the affected area is not typically known for experiencing frequent major earthquakes, making the event one of the most powerful seismic incidents to strike the region in recent history.
Authorities have warned that the death toll could rise further as rescue and recovery operations continue across multiple states.
Why Did the Initial Death Toll Estimate Exceed 100,000?
The early projection that fatalities could surpass 100,000 was based on a "Red Alert" impact assessment generated by the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system shortly after the earthquakes occurred.
Using automated algorithms, the model estimated a significant probability that fatalities could range between 10,000 and 100,000 or higher based on factors such as earthquake magnitude, population exposure, building vulnerability, and historical casualty patterns from similar disasters.
One key reason behind the alarming estimate was two major earthquakes back-to-back within just 39 seconds. The initial 7.2-magnitude quake likely weakened buildings and infrastructure, while the subsequent 7.5-magnitude earthquake, which was nearly three times more powerful in terms of energy, caused additional structural failures and collapses.
As a result, USGS PAGER initially projected a worst-case scenario before ground reports and official assessments became available.
How the USGS Calculates Casualties During Calamities
Within minutes of a significant earthquake occurring anywhere in the world, the USGS PAGER system evaluates its potential humanitarian and economic impact.
The system generates impact assessments for significant earthquakes, typically those measuring magnitude 5.5 or greater, within approximately 20 minutes of an event. It rapidly evaluates potential fatalities, injuries, and economic losses by combining estimates of ground shaking with demographic and structural vulnerability data.
The primary purpose of PAGER is to assist emergency responders, government agencies, humanitarian organizations, and the media in understanding the potential scale of a disaster as quickly as possible.
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PAGER, which stands for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response, is an automated system developed and operated by the US Geological Survey (USGS).