Nuclear-Armed Pakistan vs Guerrilla Taliban: How Islamabad's Once-Backed Taliban Became Hard-Core Enemy

Pakistan has been the Afghan Taliban's closest friend for decades. It was Islamabad that helped give birth to the Taliban in the early 1990s as a way to give Pakistan "strategic depth" in its rivalry with India. On Monday, Pakistan's relentless airstrike on Afghanistan's hospital killed more than 400 civilians. Amid the fresh attacks between the two neighbouring states raises question: What has gone wrong and what will happen if both countries involve in full-fledged war?

Why are the neighbours now at odds?

Pakistan welcomed the return to power of the Taliban in 2021, with then Prime Minister Imran Khan saying that Afghans had broken the shackles of slavery. But Islamabad soon found that the Taliban were not as cooperative as it had hoped. Pakistan says that the leadership of militant group Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan TTP and many of its fighters are based in Afghanistan, and that armed insurgents seeking independence for the southwestern Pakistani province of Balochistan also use Afghanistan as a safe haven.

(Media personnel work at the site of a drug users rehabilitation hospital destroyed in what the Taliban said was a Pakistani air strike in Kabul, Afghanistan | CRDIT: REUTERS)

Pakistan blames Taliban for surge in attacks. Kabul for its part has repeatedly denied allowing militants to use Afghan territory to launch attacks. The Afghan Taliban say Pakistan harbours fighters from its enemy Islamic State, a charge Islamabad denies.

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Who are the Pakistani Taliban?

The TTP was formed in 2007 by several militant outfits active in northwest Pakistan. It is commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP has attacked markets, mosques, airports, military bases and police stations, and also gained territory mostly along the border with Afghanistan but also deep inside Pakistan, including the Swat Valley.

The group was behind the 2012 attack on then schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai, who received the Nobel Peace Prize two years later. The TTP also fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against US led forces in Afghanistan and hosted Afghan fighters in Pakistan.

Pakistan has launched military operations against the TTP on its own soil with limited success, although an offensive that ended in 2016 drastically reduced attacks until a few years ago.

What might happen next?

Pakistan is likely to intensify its military campaign, analysts say, while Kabul’s retaliation could come in the form of raids on border posts and more cross border guerrilla attacks targeting security forces. The fighting had ebbed after China, which has good relations with both countries, intervened to cool tensions, but it has flared again amid the US Israeli war on Iran in the region.

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Pakistan military vs Taliban

On paper, there is a wide mismatch between the military capabilities of the two sides. At 1,72,000, the Taliban have less than a third of Pakistan’s personnel.

The Taliban do possess at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, but their condition is unknown and they have no fighter jets or effective air force.

Pakistan’s armed forces include more than 600000 active personnel, have more than 6000 armoured fighting vehicles and more than 400 combat aircraft, according to 2025 data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The country is also nuclear armed.

(With inputs from Reuters)