West Bengal Election 2026: How Could BJP Breach Mamata-led TMC's Women Vote Bank? Explained

Bengal Elections: Women voters in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, emerged as a decisive vote bank over the years. Since the ascent of the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah era in national politics, women voters have been inclined towards the Bharatiya Janata Party, crediting the women's welfare schemes and improved law and order, which provides them a sense of security. In Bengal, the BJP is hopeful for the Bihar-like results, as the saffron party pitches for women-oriented schemes. However, the Bengal battle is a little different because here, the poll battle is against a woman, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who is popularly known as 'Didi', and she gets the biggest chunk of women voters in every poll.

Women voters, who constitute nearly half of the state's electorate and have increasingly turned out in greater numbers than men, have emerged as the most decisive electoral bloc in the state's politics over the past decade. With cohesive voting patterns, a steady rise in turnout and welfare-driven political mobilisation, women voters now form the backbone of Banerjee's electoral coalition - a support base the BJP is aggressively trying to breach.

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SIR May Play A Role

Survey-based estimates from the 2021 assembly polls suggest the TMC secured more than 50 per cent of the women's vote, while the BJP captured about 37 per cent. Any disproportionate deletions among women voters after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) drive, even if marginal, could have implications in tightly contested seats where turnout differences often determine outcomes.

How Numbers At Play In Bengal

The SIR of electoral rolls in West Bengal has introduced a new political variable ahead of the assembly polls, with Election Commission data showing a marginally sharper decline in women electors than men - a shift analysts said could influence outcomes in closely fought constituencies. According to EC data following the SIR of electoral rolls, the number of women electors stands at around 3.44 crore, down from 3.77 crore when the process began in November, while male voters declined from 3.89 crore to 3.60 crore. Overall, women account for nearly half of the state's 7.04 crore electorate. The drop among women voters is 8.7 per cent, marginally higher than the roughly 7.5 per cent decline among male electors.

TMC Vs BJP On Welfare Programmes

Economists described this trend as 'Didi effect', Banerjee's personal appeal combined with a network of women-focused welfare programmes. These schemes have provided economic empowerment to women in lower-income households. When financial support reaches women directly, it often translates into political trust. Central to the TMC's strategy has been the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme, under which women receive monthly financial assistance. The state recently increased the grant by Rs 500, raising the allowance to Rs 1,500 for women in the general category and Rs 1,700 for SC/ST beneficiaries. The scheme currently covers about 2.50 crore women.

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BJP's Strategy

The BJP has attempted to counter the TMC's welfare pitch by promising expanded financial support for women and indicating that the Lakshmir Bhandar allowance could be raised to Rs 3,000 if it comes to power. Aware that women voters form the bedrock of the TMC's electoral strength, the BJP has also drawn up a strategy targeting beneficiaries of central welfare schemes such as free rations and housing.

BJP To Raise Women's Safety Issue

The BJP has been raising issues related to women's safety. Aiming to woo women voters, the BJP fielded RG Kar's rape and murder victim's mother from the Panihati constituency in the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, considered a TMC stronghold, in the North 24 Parganas district. Her candidature from Panihati signals the BJP's attempt to politically channel the anger and emotional resonance of the RG Kar protests.

Muslim Women Voters To Be A Big Challenge For BJP

The ruling party wants to increase the voter turnout of Muslim women. If turnout increases, then the BJP's electoral prospects will take a hit.
(With PTI Inputs)