• Source:JND

Shiv Sena-UBT And TMC Crisis: For the last couple of days, West Bengal has been in focus as Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) has witnessed an unprecedented revolt, resulting in a split in the party. She has lost around 60 MLAs out of 80 and 20 Lok Sabha MPs out of 28. Now, the matter is in the court and the question which faction is the real TMC remains open. Before the issue could be settled, another political revolt occurred. This time, the political drama took place in Maharashtra.

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Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena is once again set to face a split as its six Lok Sabha MPs parted ways with the party. Thackeray witnessed betrayal by his lawmakers for the second time after exact four years. Around this time in 2022, Eknath Shinde revolted against Shiv Sena and captured the party after winning the legal battle in the court and the Election Commission of India. Uddhav lost his party's name and symbol to Shinde in the coup.

Now, similar scrip of rebellion is being repeated. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has nine MPs in the Lok Sabha and six rebel revolted. The rebels will have to jump ship together to escape disqualification under the anti-defection law.

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Meanwhile, Lok Sabha MPs Arvind Sawant and Anil Desai, along with Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut, met Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Wednesday, urging him not to recognise the rebels as the Real Shiv Sena-UTB, citing Anti-Defection Law.

Since, the crisis in TMC and Shiv Sena (UTB) came almost simultaneously, political experts are seeing some commonalities in the rebellions in the two corners of the country.

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Here Are Five Key Common Factors In Crisis In TMC And Shiv Sena-UTB:

1. Weak Leadership And Nepotism: Rebel TMC leaders alleged that the centralisation of power in the top leadership - Mamata Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee - weakened the party, which cost them election. They also highlighted nepotism as the kye issue of the mutiny, saying Mamata overlooked other senior leaders to promote her nephew. Similarly, in the Shiv Sena-UTB too, a section of the party think that Uddhav got party as family legacy, being son of Balasaheb Thackery, the founder of Shiv Sena.

2. Electoral Defeat: TMC saw mutiny days after losing power to the Bharatiya Janata Party. Most rebels extended their support to the ruling alliance, NDA, which means power factor played a key role. Rebels want to be with the ruling party to push development related works in their constituencies. On the other hand, it is expected that rebel Shiv Sena-UTB MPs may extend their support to the ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra. They may also merge with Shinde's Sena, if they succeeded in skipping disqualification.

3. Organisational Weakness: In both parties, decisions are being taken by the top and other senior leaders feel being sidelined. Their organizational structure are not as strong as that of the rivals. When high command culture overlook the organisational process, a rebel faction emerges and claims to be the "real party".

4. External Factors: Shiv Sena-UTB alleged that Shinde launched an 'Operation Tiger' to break the party, while Mamata also alleged the BJP of threatening party leaders, compelling them to quit the TMC.

5. Majority Mark In Parliament: Opposition alleged that the NDA is attempting to achieve 2/3rd majority number in the both House of the Parliament. Currently, the NDA may have achieved 312–318 tally after 20 rebel TMC MPs and Shiv Sena-UBT lawmakers' support. However, the 2/3rd magic number is 362–363. In the Rajya Sabha, NDA has around 149 and the required 2/3rd number is 163–164.

 


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