Southwest Monsoon Set To Lose Pace: IMD Predicts 'Below-Normal' Rainfall In August-September | Full Forecast

Jagran Bureau, New Delhi: After providing relief with good rainfall in July, the southwest monsoon's pace may slow down slightly during its second phase.

According to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest forecast, average rainfall from August to September is likely to be 'below normal'. The rainfall is expected to be less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

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IMD Forecasts Uneven Rain Distribution Across India

Meteorological Department Director General Mrityunjay Mahapatra stated that while many parts of the country are likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon, Central India, northern parts of Northwest India, and some areas in the Northeast and Eastern states are expected to see normal or above-normal rainfall.

Consequently, rainfall distribution across the country will be uneven during this period.

Good July Rain Shrinks India's Monsoon Deficit To 13%

Currently, the country's combined rainfall for June and July is 13 per cent below normal, marking a significant improvement from the 35.4 per cent deficit recorded at the end of June. This recovery was driven by good rainfall in July. The average rainfall across the country in July was 283.3 mm, slightly above the normal 280.5 mm.

According to the weather office, two main factors were behind the good rainfall in July.

- First, four low-pressure systems formed in the Bay of Bengal, two of which intensified into depressions. Normally, these systems remain active for about 13.5 days in July, but this time they lasted for 24 days.

- Second, a surge in monsoon activity early in the month brought widespread rainfall to several parts of the country.

July also saw a sharp increase in extremely heavy rainfall events. In the year, 269 such events (exceeding 204.5 mm) were recorded in July, the highest in five years. Odisha, Gujarat, and Maharashtra recorded the highest number of such events.

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Southern Peninsula Records 10th-Driest July Since 1901

In contrast, southern peninsular India experienced significantly lower rainfall in July, marking its tenth-lowest July rainfall since 1901. The prolonged dry spell also drove up the night-time temperatures, resulting in the highest average July minimum temperature recorded in the region since 1901.

IMD Forecast For Monsoon's Second Phase

The Meteorological Department forecasts that while the second phase of the monsoon may be weaker than the first, some areas will still witness intermittent good rainfall.

(With Inputs From PTI)