- El Niño to bring warmer than normal winter to India.
- Pacific Ocean temperatures rising, El Niño peaking in December.
- Brief, severe cold wave spells still expected in states.
Jagran Bureau, New Delhi: India is set to experience warmer-than-normal winter conditions between November and January due to the influence of El Niño, which is expected to peak in December. However, meteorologists warn that short spells of severe cold remain on the horizon.
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What Is Driving The Milder Winter Forecast?
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are rising steadily and are expected to peak in December, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Mahesh Palawat, Vice President at Skymet Weather, said that the impact of El Niño could last through February. This ocean warming will push up both maximum and minimum temperatures across large parts of South Asia, leading to a warmer start to the winter season.
Although the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) seasonal forecasts are still pending, climate projections indicate that long-lasting severe cold across India is unlikely this winter.
Cold Wave Threat Remains
However, the warming trend will not be uniform across the country. Brief temperature drops and short cold wave spells are still expected in several states, including:
- Delhi
- Punjab
- Haryana
- Uttar Pradesh
- Rajasthan
- Bihar
Key Weather Factors Shaping Local Winters
The severity and duration of local cold snaps will depend on a combination of weather factors:
- Western Disturbances: Active disturbance systems will trigger snowfall in the northern mountain ranges.
- Northwesterly Winds: Fresh mountain snowfall will drive chilly winds into the northern plains, causing temporary temperature dips.
- Indian Ocean Conditions: Sea surface conditions and local weather patterns will decide how long cold snaps last.
Conclusion: While El Niño will keep overall winter temperatures higher than normal, it will not completely prevent cold winds or mountain snow. Severe cold events are expected to persist for a few days.