- By Nidhi Giri
- Mon, 27 Apr 2026 12:54 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
North India states are currently reeling under intense heat conditions with heat wave warnings issued across Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odisha, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal heat wave days in Central, East and Northwest India across June. Meanwhile, on Sunday, the highest maximum temperature in the country was recorded in UP’s Banda at 47.4 degrees Celsius.
As per global climate agencies, if a super El Nino develops, it could further increase troubles with weaker monsoon and more severe heat. According to a report by The Guardian, certain conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean could lead to temperatures to shoot up across the globe. These conditions are being monitored by scientists.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions could turn strongest in over a century.
"After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
"Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April."
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El Nino vs Super El Nino
El Nino conditions develop particularly every 2-7 years. It is a natural phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. In the Indian context, El Nino usually leads to poor southwest monsoons and rising mercury in summers.
As per WMO, a shift to El Nino conditions could occur between May and July this year.
A stronger and more impactful version of El Nino is called Super El Nino. During this phenomenon, sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +2.0 degrees Celsius above average. This is recorded in the central Pacific. During El Nino, these values stand at +0.5 degrees Celsius to +1.4 degrees Celsius.
Impact On India
If India witnesses effects of a a super El Nino, the following things could happen:
-Minimum temperatures could go above-normal in several areas in India. This would in turn lead to hotter nights.
-Lesser rainfall during the year leading to risk of drought and other agricultural problems.
-Water supply and energy grids could be impacted if the heat intensifies. This could worsen as January-February rainfall was 60 per cent below normal.