- By Raju Kumar
- Thu, 19 Mar 2026 06:35 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Kerala Elections 2026: The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran showed a spiral impact beyond the Gulf region. The nearly three-week-long war has created a global fuel crisis, which has unfolded with a domino effect, particularly in Asian nations. Election-bound Kerala has a deep connection with the Middle East nations. If the war continues for a long time, it will affect Kerala as well.
How Kerala Election Will Be Affected
The upcoming Kerala Assembly Elections, scheduled for April 9, 2026, will have indirect implications as a huge chunk of Keralites work in the Gulf countries - UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, etc. This Middle East conflict could impact Kerala's economy, as well as politics. The poll-bound state's economy is largely dependent on remittances, money sent by migrant workers from Gulf countries to their families. In 2023-24, Kerala received USD 23.4 billion in inward remittances, which amounted to around 17 per cent of the state's GDP.
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Impact On Employment And Inflation
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint controlled by Iran, has already created a global fuel supply issue, setting crude oil prices to hike to around USD 100-115 per barrel, which will increase inflation. Inflation could be a poll agenda in Kerala as well. In Kerala, where inflation is already an issue, this could go against the LDF (CPI(M) government). The shortage of LPG cylinders can be a part of the poll campaign.
Millions of Keralites work in Gulf countries in sectors such as construction, oil and gas and hospitality. If the war continues for a long time, they could lose their jobs, and their wages could be cut, which may lead to a reverse migration, and this would create trouble for the ruling LDF.
Safety Concerns Of Migrant Workers
Around 3.8 million Keralites are working in the Middle East, of whom 70-80 per cent are in Saudi Arabia and the UAE together, which remained under Iranian attacks. Their families in Kerala are worried about their safety. This could impact voter sentiment for both the LDF and UDF.
Uncertainty Over 'Vote Flights' For Keralites
As the polls approach, anxiety is growing among Gulf-based Keralite voters who are unsure if they will be able to return home to cast their votes this time. With limited flight services, frequent cancellations and rising ticket prices, expatriate voters fear that the usual "vote flight" arrangements may not be feasible this time.
War Politics In Kerala
Recently, Kerala BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar hit out at both the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF and the opposition Congress-led UDF, saying that their reactions to the conflict in West Asia show that they are supporting Iran rather than standing with the people of Kerala living in the Gulf countries. He accused both fronts of "playing politics" in the name of religion and appeasement ahead of State Assembly elections, rather than taking a clear stand on the crisis.
His statement comes a day after Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan alleged that the United States was displaying "hooliganism" against Iran and accused it of taking "irrational" actions that undermine the sovereignty of nations. The Congress has also "unequivocally" condemned the targeted assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and said no external power has the authority to engineer regime change, as such actions amount to imperialism and are incompatible with a rules-based international order.
(With Agencies Inputs)