Gold Price Outlook: Will Recent Fall Continue or Is Rally Ahead? What Analyst Predicts

Gold and silver prices fell in the domestic futures market despite bullion prices being high in international markets. Bullion prices made significant corrections over the past two days, pushing gold below Rs 1.60 lakh per 10 grams and silver below Rs 2.40 lakh per kilogram. Meanwhile, this contrary trend in the domestic and retail market put investors in speculation–Why are gold and silver prices falling in India? Will gold prices decline further or is there a rally ahead?   

Well, many analysts attribute the current trend as a reaction to profit booking; however, media reports claiming that the central government is considering reducing the import duty on gold and silver might be the key trigger. Meanwhile, Anuk Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert, predicted a 9 per cent fall in gold prices if import duty sees a reduction. 

Gold Rate Outlook: What Analysts Predict

SEBI-registered market and commodity expert Anuj Gupta told jagran.com that this is the market's classic wait-and-see approach before any major policy decision. If the duty is cut, landed costs will fall overnight. Dealers holding high-duty stocks may have to sell their stock at a discount to stay afloat. 

“Simply put, if gold imports are cut, prices could fall by up to 9 per cent,” Gupta said. 

Explaining it further, he emphasised that the recent discount of 1-1.5 per cent is purely speculative, and selling pressure will persist until the situation becomes clearer. If a duty cut is announced, there will be a rapid repricing in the domestic market. However, he also noted that the import duty cut is merely speculation and there is no official word on it. 

Bullion Traders Demand Reduction In Import Duty 

The Jagran report claimed, citing sources, that bullion traders along with the jewellery industry are demanding a reduction in import duty from the current 15 per cent import duty to 6 per cent. However, no final decision has been made on this yet by the government. 

On May 13, 2026, the government increased the import duty to 15 per cent to curb gold imports and protect the country's dollar reserves.

Also Read: Gold Rates Crash Rs 3,000; Check 24k, 22k Gold Rates In Mumbai, Chennai And Other Key Cities

Why Gold and Silver Rates Falling? 

Due to uncertainty over the import duty reduction, discounts in India's physical gold market have widened significantly, moving in a different direction from global prices. Earlier this week, domestic gold was selling at a discount of 2-2.5 per cent (around $45 per ounce) to its landed price, which increased by another 1-1.5 per cent overnight. 

Buyers are hesitant to accumulate new stock at current prices, as a reduction in duty–If happens– could reduce the cost of gold overnight. Until clarity on the government's decision becomes clear, dealers are forced to offer huge discounts.

Gold Rate Today On MCX

In early trade, Gold rates fell significantly in the domestic futures market, sliding nearly Rs 3,000 in early trade to below Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams. Silver prices too declined over Rs 2,700 to a low of Rs 2,36,878 per kilogram in the futures market. The decline was attributed to profit booking after the precious metals rose significantly in the last few sessions.

MCX Gold And Silver  

Gold contract, due to expire on October 5, declined Rs 2,971 to a low of Rs 1,56,692 per 10 grams on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) as compared to last day's closing of Rs 1,59,663 per 10 grams. 

However, the yellow metal largely recovered from early losses. In afternoon trade, MCX gold was trading at Rs 1,58,800, down Rs 863 or 0.54 per cent.

At the same time, Silver futures, due to expire on September 4, dipped Rs 2,700 to a low of Rs 2,36,878 per kilogram as compared to the last closing of Rs 2,39,638 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). 

In afternoon trade, MCX Silver was trading flat at Rs 2,39,629, recovering from early losses amid renewed buying momentum.