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Gold Price Outlook: The bullion market has been a bit range-bound ever since the war in the Middle East broke out in late February this year. The lower volatility in the gold prices has left investors in split wither they should invest in gold. If you are among those planning to invest in gold or buy jewellery, the latest outlook from the World Bank deserves attention.

In its recent Commodity Market Outlook report, the global body has projected a decent rise in gold prices in 2026; at the same time, the institution predicted a possible correction in 2027.

Gold Price May Jump 37%

According to the report, gold prices could jump 37 per cent in 2026 compared to last year. However, prices may fall by around 8.5 per cent in 2027, indicating that the rally may not sustain for long.

The surge is largely linked to heightening geopolitical conditions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the United States, Iran and Israel.

Historically, it is seen that in any sort of uncertain conditions, investors rush to buy gold, which is considered a safe-haven investment option.

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Gold Price Target 2026

According to the outlook report, Gold prices are expected to average around $4,700 per ounce (about Rs 1.44 lakh) in 2026, while in 2027, the average price could fall to $4,300 per ounce (around Rs 1.31 lakh per 10 grams).

However, the report noted that these projections depend on how geopolitical situations unfold, especially in the Middle East.

If supply disruptions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, markets may stabilise by the end of the year, the report highlighted.

At the same time, if global tensions increase further, demand for gold could rise even more. This would likely lead a sharp rise in speculative trading.

On the other hand, higher interest rates and easing geopolitical tensions could reduce demand for gold, leading to a price decline.

Gold Prices Remain Volatile

Meanwhile, gold prices have remained volatile in recent times. In today's trade at the time of writing, COMEX Gold, June expiry, were trading at $4,631 per ounce, while on MCX the gold future--July expiry-- was trading at Rs 1,51,337 per 10 grams.

“Gold traded weak, declining around Rs 900 to Rs 149100, as continued profit booking and rising crude-led inflation concerns kept pressure on prices. Higher oil prices are reinforcing expectations that the US Fed may maintain a tighter stance, which supports the dollar and limits upside in gold," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

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"COMEX gold is hovering near $4600–$4620, facing resistance at higher levels, indicating a lack of strong buying momentum. Market participants are now closely watching the US Fed policy decision and commentary, which will be crucial in shaping the outlook for interest rates amid ongoing US–Iran uncertainty. In the near term, gold is expected to remain volatile and range-bound, with support near Rs 148000 and resistance around Rs 152000," Trivedi added.


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