- By Alex David
- Sat, 28 Feb 2026 11:21 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
The global smartphone market is on track for its decline in 2026 because of the rising memory/RAM prices. Smartphone shipments are expected to hit their lowest point in over ten years, marking a structural shift in the market and not merely a temporary slowdown. Budget-orientated manufacturers will probably face the brunt of this, while premium brands are still better placed to weather the storm.
Smartphone Shipments to Fall to Decade Low
According to the latest forecast from International Data Corporation, global smartphone shipments will shrink 12.9 percent in 2026, falling to 1.12 billion units. The report largely blames the slump on sky-high memory component prices, which are driving up production costs across the sector.
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Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at the data analysis and consulting company IDC corroborated that perspective, describing the situation as a “tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain” that echoed more strongly than reporting of a cyclical correction.
Budget Android Brands Under Pressure
IDC cautions the brunt will be felt most by low-end Android smartphone makers. Soaring component costs are squeezing margins, pressuring manufacturers to raise prices just as consumer demand at higher price points is already cooling. Analysts say that might push smaller players out of the market entirely.
Rather, it is Apple and Samsung that are expected to gain market share. Armed with sturdier balance sheets and premium positioning, each firm is more able to swallow higher costs and sustain margins.
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Prices Rising, Recovery Still Distant
Smartphones’ average selling price is expected to surge 14 per cent this year to a record $523 as manufacturers shift their attention to higher-margin models. IDC predicts just a slight recovery, to 2 per cent in 2027, followed by a bounce back of 5.2 per cent in 2028.
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Mobile Phone Tracker, warned that the sub-$100 segment, accounting for 171 million devices, may become “permanently uneconomical", even after memory prices stabilise by mid-2027.