- By Aditya Pratap Singh
- Sun, 01 Mar 2026 04:23 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Stock Market Outlook: The Indian stock market will likely react sharply to the armed conflict that broke out in middle east after the US and Israel attacked Iran, once the equity indices start trading from March 2, 2026, after the scheduled holiday on Saturday and Sunday. According to market experts, the potential rise in crude prices and impact on trade activity due to the development in the Middle East would lower the market sentiment at least for the short term.
The Sensex, Nifty, and other indices could plunge as trading commences on Monday, as the spike in crude prices is not a great sign for India, as the nation imports over 85 per cent of its oil and a significant portion of export belong to Gulf countries.
"The near-term impact will be negative. Crude has spiked, and if the crude price remains high for an extended period of time, our balance of trade and balance of payments will be impacted since we import around 85% of our oil requirements," said Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
As per various media reports, Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a major trade route for oil from Gulf nations, which could escalate oil prices.
"If the Strait of Hormuz is closed ( there are unconfirmed reports of this), the crude price can spike further. Trump may forcefully reopen this. But that requires boots on the ground, which will escalate tensions further," Vijaykumar noted.
Impact of US-Israel-Iran Conflict On Stock Market
Medium-term impact on the market will depend on how long the conflict lasts; we don’t know the timeline for the same.
"After crippling Iran, the US and Israel may make a strategic withdrawal. The market will react very negatively. In a weak market, upstream oil companies and defence stocks will do well," Vijaykumar said.
According to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, the markets head into the new week with sentiment on edge, as investors balance fragile technical signals against an unsettled global backdrop.
"Elevated event risk and expiry-driven positioning are likely to keep volatility firm, reinforcing a cautious undertone unless key resistance levels are convincingly reclaimed," he added.
Stock Market Remained Volatile Last Week
The domestic stock market remained volatile last week--February 23 to 27--as domestic equity indices traded sharply down and high during the five trading sessions. Nifty50 closed in positive territory on February 23, while settling slightly higher on February 25 and February 26. Meanwhile, the 50-share index dragged significantly on February 27 and February 24.
On Friday itself, equity indices fell by over a per cent, and both the key indices--Sensex and Nifty ended the week over 1.5 per cent lower.
"Market sentiment remained cautious and volatile, influenced by changing global cues, renewed tariff uncertainty, and concerns over AI‑driven disruption," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.
"Sector rotation was notable, with defensives and domestically focused segments gaining traction, while real estate and IT sectors faced sustained pressure due to worries around AI-driven business‑model disruptions," he added.